Art of Watching Line Movements
There is an art to sports betting that involves a large amount of skill and some luck. You should never be betting on sports with the intent to make money if you don’t feel like you have the knowledge within that sport. Despite having this knowledge and knowing the stats, there is still an art. This is the art of prediction! More specifically we are talking about your ability to interpret statistics and situations to make the right decision. If you can become a pro at watching the line movements and acting before they actually do move, you can find some real value in most of your bets.
Line Movements?
In a previous article we discuss what line movements actually mean. So hopefully by now you know what a line movement is. As a brief summary, a line movement is the movement of odds as variables change. The bookies keep their odds in a constant state of flux, able to change them at a moments notice. These variables can include injury, weather, players and other bettors.
The Art of Watching Line Movements
As we discussed above, there are in fact a huge range of factors that will effect the line movement. How bookies will react to certain news or situations is often fairly predictable. Your job is to predict what will happen ahead of the bookies. So, for example, say it is known that the quarterback is injured and there is a big game coming up – he may or may not make it. It is your job to predict whether he will or not, how fit he will be if he does, and what bearing that will have on the game.
If you guess right you get to cash in on odds far in advance to that of what you will get if you wait for the news to be released – because the bookies will react as soon as the news is known (and often before).
This is the most basic form of watching line movements for profit. But the main skill comes in understanding how lines will move from people’s perceptions of news and events. If you know how people will react then you can predict when the best time to place a bet will be. And that is where the profit is made. Line movements can actually make big differences on the odds that bookies are offering – so by understanding how people will make the line change, and waiting for the optimal moment, you can get the best odds for a bet.
Take over/under betting as an example. Games in wet and cold weather tend to be under – so that is always a good bet to make. But if the forecast is wet and cold everyone will be betting on unders. However if you know the forecast includes a dry day at some point before the game then you may also have noticed that when this happens more bets get made on the over – especially in mid-afternoon. This means that mid-afternoon on the dry day you are best placed to make the bet of under, making you more money if it comes in than if you had done it in a wet evening.
There are far more complex examples that demonstrate the art of line movement watching. But from our examples above you can certainly see that this is a powerful tool and is something every sports bettor should understand. Lines move and if you understand why the lines are moving you will feel more confident and often times make smarter bets!
