Fading the Public
One of the most popular betting strategies used by people trying to win at sports betting is to “fade the public.” This common phrase means to bet against the public perception – and against the team or player who the unwashed masses are placing bets on. Like all vague gambling strategies, it’s far too general to be a consistent way to win. However, there’s more than a kernel of truth behind the idea that fading the public is often a great way to score some easy wins.
A lot of readers might question why you’d want to fade the public at all. After all, if that many people all agree on the smart bet, shouldn’t that tell us something? In a world of perfect information, it would, but the information most people use to place bets on sporting events is far from perfect. In fact, it’s usually downright terrible. Most casual bettors get most of their information from sports media (or for big events, even news media) who may hype local teams, try to sell a game as being more competitive than it usually is, or simply get behind whatever seems like the best storyline. It’s not that the information they give out is usually inaccurate; it’s just that it’s almost never complete or entirely unbiased.
The biggest example of this effect may come from underdog stories, or “teams of destiny,” who a community (or the entire country) rallies around because, well, they want them to win and it feels like they should win. It could be the little school that came out of nowhere to upset someone last week, a team that doesn’t have a lot of talent but is on a long winning streak heading into the playoffs, or an aging tennis player who has made the finals of a Grand Slam event and now has a shot at winning one last title against the #1 player in the world.
Let’s face it: people love these stories – and why shouldn’t they? I’m sure you get into them, because I do too. But they shouldn’t effect how we bet on games, even though many casual sports bettors let it happen. When one of these stories is being hyped in the media, check to see if the spread or money line is moving quickly in response. If it is, there’s usually a lot of value in getting on the other side.
Another great spot for fading the public is when dealing with fan favorites. This is especially true when it comes to teams with a huge national following that will bet on them even when they’re clearly overmatched. One great example in college football is the University of Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish are probably the most popular team in the country, and the betting money often reflects this. Now, does this mean you should automatically bet against Notre Dame every week? Of course not! If Notre Dame is playing a low profile game, there won’t be much money on it anyway. If Notre Dame really has a great team, the betting money will only be accurately reflecting this; if they’re terrible, even big fans may not put money on them. But when the Irish are mediocre or good, and find themselves up against a much better team in a high profile matchup with a lot of hype, keep an eye on the betting line – you very well might see a line you like.
Like all rules though, take fading the public with a grain of salt. It’s important to do your homework, because sometimes the hype is justified, and the Cinderella story really will come true. Sometimes teams are popular because they’re just that good. So do your research, and know how you feel about each team without any external bias effecting your perception. Then, when you notice that everyone else is running the wrong way, you’ll be ready to fade the public and pounce on the huge profits just sitting out there waiting to be taken.
