Home Field Advantage in Soccer

» Posted on 12 / 31 / 2015
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Home Field Advantage in Soccer

Playing at home is an advantage in every sport, but it’s usually seen as a mild one. In American football or basketball, home field advantage is usually worth about three points or so, while in baseball, home teams win about 54% of the games. These are definitely advantages, to be sure, but they’re not insurmountable.
The story in soccer is much different. Home teams have a huge advantage; depending on the league, it usually ranges between .4 and .5 goals. Considering the average goals per game in major European leagues ranges from 2.4-2.8 goals combined between the two teams, half a goal is a major edge.
This edge translates into a major difference between the home and away records for soccer teams. Even dominant teams aren’t nearly as overwhelming on the road, while mediocre – and even bad – sides put up a major fight in their home stadiums.
For examples, let’s look at the recently finished 2009-2010 English Premier League season. The top four finishers were Chelsea, Manchester United, Arsenal and Tottenham. At home, these teams combined for an amazing record of 62 wins, 6 draws, and 8 losses. That’s right – they won over 81% of their home games outright! On the other hand, even these great teams were very beatable on the road, combining for a record of 36 wins, 16 draws and 24 losses. Still good, but considering these were the very best teams in the league, it’s easy to see that home teams hold a monstrous advantage.
Looking at the bottom of the league table, the situation is similar. The three teams that were relegated from the EPL – Burnley, Hull City, and Portsmouth – were almost automatic wins for their opponents on the road. The three combined to put up a dreadful 3 wins, 11 draws and 43 losses on the road. But at home, while they weren’t exactly world beaters, these three teams had to be taken seriously. Together, they put up 18 wins, 14 draws and 25 losses at home; without Portsmouth (by far the leaguy’s worst team), that mark improves to 13 wins, 11 draws and 14 losses.
The point here is that home field advantage may not only be important in soccer, but it should perhaps be the largest consideration you have when making soccer bets. No team can be taken lightly at home, as even the worst team will play respectably when defending their turf. And without huge odds in your favor, betting on a good team to lose at home – or even draw – is suicidal to your bankroll. Out of 19 games played at home during the EPL season, none of the top ten teams lost more than 3; only four teams in the whole league had a sub-.500 record at home. With that in mind, realize that the odds you get to bet on a road team to win have to be excellent for you to make a bet on them ; even the very best teams are usually at best 50/50 to win games away from home. Conversely, you can sometimes get good value on weaker teams who are surprisingly tough at home to draw (or even win) against stronger teams.
One last thing to keep in mind is that home field advantage carries over into the international game, too. If you’re planning to bet on the 2010 World Cup, be careful about dismissing South Africa’s chances too easily; if you can get long odds on them to pull an upset or two, there could be a lot of value in those bets.

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