Learn to Bet on Home Underdogs
Learn to Bet on Home Underdogs
One of the best ways to become a profitable sports bettor is to bet on home underdogs. A statistic most bettors need to understand, home underdogs win 57.1% of the time, which is more than home favorites – 49.1%. According to sports betting statisticians, home underdogs only attract nearly 32% of all bets coming in. Some of the reasons for this:
- Bettors always overestimate favorites
- Bettors love to bet favorites
- Bookmakers expect a lot of money placed on favorite and they allow for it
- For an improved chance to increase profit.
What does it mean to be an underdog? An underdog is a team that is picked by bookmakers to lose a game. Underdogs will be “getting points”, or with even points, but a betting line of -105 or better. A pay-off for -105 would be $95 for every $100 bet.
So, what results can you get by betting a home dog? First, the home underdog can win the game. It’s sports! We have seen a lot of crazy results, and seeing a home underdog in any sport can certainly happen. There is a positive result. The second result, the home underdog can get blown out, and you lose your bet. While this can certainly happen, how many times do we see a home team with less talent hang in a game? Often. The last result, the home underdog loses the game, but covers the spread – you win! So betting a home underdog gives you two positive chances to win the bet!
In the NFL, home underdogs are very profitable; as teams at home continue to beat the spread- making games closer than they were expected, or flat out win outright. The NBA has not seen a trend that is as glaring as the NFL. In the NBA, it appears talent usually prevails, whether at home or away. The best chance to grab a home underdog in the NBA is when one of the “middle of the road teams” is hosting another “middle of the road team”. In Baseball, teams typically have a much better chance winning at home. Pitching match-ups typically determine what an opening line for a baseball game is, but home/away splits should always be dissected when betting on baseball.
In every sport, there are teams that have a good track record of covering the spread as a home underdog. Some teams flat out are tough at home, which of course, do factor into the bookmaker’s decision making, but these teams should certainly be tracked. Such current examples: Boise State has won 97% of their home games in 10 years. While it may be odd to ever find Boise State as an underdog – if you do, nail it. On the flip side, perennially, Army, Duke and Buffalo are most commonly home underdogs
So why should you bet on home underdogs? Well, with all the numbers heading towards this intelligent betting style, plus the fact home teams have significantly more advantages than the road team:
- less travel
- comfortable setting night before game
- crowd advantage
Also, if teams need any more incentive, they usually will put forth their best effort in front of home crowds. If you are looking for any kind of advantage when betting on sports: bet home underdogs. You may not be a millionaire quick, but statistics show, you will make a profit.
