The Basics of Totals in Baseball
Baseball is notoriously tough to bet on because, more so than any other sports, any team can win on any given night. While you only have to hit 40-45% of your sides if you’re consistently playing underdogs, totals give bettors something to bet on that offers a little more predictability. Here are some key things to look at/start with while evaluating totals in baseball.
· Weather/Environment- Any precipitation, obscure temperatures, or high winds can easily influence the way a game is played. Also, ballparks that have a tendency to play small can also affect totals.
o If the Cubs are playing at Wrigley and the wind is blowing in, the game is drastically different than when the wind is blowing out because of the structure of Wrigley Field.
o Mid-April games in Minnesota or any other colder climate are also affected by weather. It’s tougher to hit in cold temperatures, so you can expect lower scoring games to be played when this will be factor.
o Great American Ball Park, Coors Field, Yankees Stadium, Wrigley when the wind is blowing out are all example of parks where the homerun figures are higher than others.
A rule of thumb should be to check the weather forecast before you bet on baseball totals because you don’t want to be kicking yourself later while you’re rooting for an over during a cold, rainy game.
· Starting Pitcher/Availability of Bullpens- Most totals begin with the starting pitcher. If the Yankees are throwing C.C. and the Red Sox are throwing Beckett, the total will be lower than if the Pirates and the Royals were throwing their #5 guys out there. It goes without saying because teams are obviously going to have more trouble scoring off of better pitching. However, an often overlooked aspect is the availability of bullpens.
o If a team is going through a stretch of 8-9 games in a row without a day off, bullpens become depleted and guys are unavailable for certain games.
o If a middle relief guy throws more than an inning the night before, he’s also most likely unavailable for the next game.
o If a team is throwing an innings eater (Bronson Arroyo type) and their bullpen has been heavily used, the manager will most likely leave the starter in the game for longer than he would regardless of situations, just to save his bullpen.
· Days off- Make sure you have an idea for what the team’s lineup is going to be before betting on a total. If it’s well known that a star player gets an off day during a day game that follows a night game, you might want to press the issue or lay off the game. If Albert Pujols isn’t in the lineup, it can tremendously affect the total of a Cardinals game.
· Umpires- While you can argue that umpires don’t drastically affect the game, some umpires are geared more toward either high scoring or low scoring affairs due to their strike zones. A quick search on the internet can give you umpiring statistics as they relate to totals and which umps are more susceptible to overs or unders.
These aspects of betting totals in baseball are just a starting point. Always remember that Vegas knows all of this information when putting the lines out. Don’t think that just because it is cold that the game will go under, because Vegas has already adjusted the line accordingly. These guidelines simply give you a place to start; Do your own research and handicap the game the way you think it will go based on your informed opinion.
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